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Showing posts with label Decision Making Under Risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Decision Making Under Risk. Show all posts

NUS MODULE BIDDING (NUS CORS, IVLE, ISIS)

Find out what are some useful things on module bidding that NUS may not want you to know? Also, click on the link to know how to know the outcome of your NUS bidding results BEFORE the NUS CORS sends you the email: http://jatw88.blogspot.sg/2012/07/earlier-release-of-nus-cors-bidding.html.

Update: Added a section on Unofficial NUS CORS Bidding Statistics!


Let's assume that you have some idea which module (at least the module type) you wanted to take. In this post, I will share with you what I will do before module bidding starts.


1) NUS Bulletin (http://www.nus.edu.sg/registrar/nusbulletin/modulesearch.html)


I usually use NUS bulletin to check out on the availability of the modules in the coming academic semester/year. For example, if I wish to know if SSS1207 [Natural Heritage of Singapore] will be offered in the AY12/13, I will search for SSS1207. Notice that there's a tick in the column for AY12/13, Semester 2. This means that SSS1207 will be offered only in AY12/13, Semester 2. Click on the tick or the module code and you can a brief decription of that module (Module Information). What about GEK2500 [Living in Chemistry]? Yes, it's not being offered in AY12/13.


2) Module Information


So what essential information should you look out for in the brief module description? Let's use PC1141 [Physics I] as an example.


i) Can I take the module? (check the Prerequisites) Students who didn't pass their H2 physics or PC1221 and PC1222 will not be allowed to sign up for this module (that is, you will not be able to bid for PC1141 in CORS). Or am I precluded from this module (check the Preclusions). Students who have passed PC1431 or PC1432 are not allowed to take PC1141. You should  first check out the Prerequisite & Preclusion (if any) as it's meaningless to go on if you are not allowed to bid for this module.


ii) Module Title. This is especially helpful for those freshmans who are not used to remembering vast number of module codes.


iii) The Description provides a brief outline of what's being covered in this module. It may also indicate the objective and nature of the module and who are the targeted group of students. If you really want to know a more detailed outline of the module, there are other ways (see point 6, 7 & 8)


iv) Module credit. A average NUS students take 20MCs worth of modules per semester. This usually implies that they will have to take up 5 modules, with each module carrying 4MCs.


v) Workload. The legend is always located below the module information. Personally, I would say that this usually the least accurate information being presented. Go ask any students who have taken science modules that require regular submission of lab reports and you will understand why. I would recommend people to focus only on workload component C and D. If you really hate laboratory work, don't take modules which has a non-zero C value. A non-zero D value usually means that you have graded assignments/projects.


3) Centralised Online Undergraduate Registrations System, CORS (http://www.nus.edu.sg/cors/)



Here's a funny video on what's CORS:





Nearer to the start of the bidding periods, CORS will update the list of all modules that are available for bidding under the different modules groups in the current semester. The list can be found from http://www.nus.edu.sg/cors/schedule.html, under the section Detailed Modules Info Maintained by CORS. Exam Time Table and Lecture Time Table are the additional information provided by CORS website. Recently, I just realised that there's a IVLE link on the right hand side (see point 7). The information provided are updated daily and it is important to note that the timetables may be changed from time to time. Thus, you should check the listing regularly and it's not efficient to plan your timetable too early. 


For those who have completely no idea how to use CORS, here's an official step-by-step guide: http://www.nus.edu.sg/cors/help/html/01.htm. Alternatively, you can follow the CORS Bidding for the Dummies: http://realfass.blogspot.sg/2011/01/cors-bidding-for-dummies.html.


The login page for CORS: https://aces01.nus.edu.sg/cors/StudentLogin. Don't panic if the website is down; check the schedule for CORS at http://www.nus.edu.sg/cors/schedule.html. You can know more about what you can do in each bidding rounds on http://www.nus.edu.sg/cors/useful-info.html. Sometimes, you will realise that you are unable to place a bid for certain modules, despite having the module in your Bidding Management page - check module type listing (http://www.nus.edu.sg/cors/contents/Bidding-Round-Module-Type-Setup-for-Sem-1.pdf) and you might find the answer.


4) NUS ISIS (https://myisis.nus.edu.sg/psp/cs90prd/?cmd=login)


Although this website is known for the release of examination results or provision of unoffical academic transcript, most students are not aware that it releases some essential information that kiasu students are yearning - the module timetable for the coming academic year (earlier than CORS website). To access, log into ISIS and then click on Student Center located on the bottom of the left-hand column. Then, click on Search. Let's assume that you are interested to know the tentative timetable for EC1301 [Principles of Economics] . Click in E and then look for EC-Economics. It's not laborious to find EC1301 using the search function present in any decent web browser. Click on the module code and you will be presented with the usual module information for EC1301. Now, click on the 'View Class Sections' button and then select the appropriate academic semester. Here you go: lecture/tutorial timetable and the lecturer/tutors in charge of this module. Lectures and tutorial slots are, respectively, indicated with a L and H at the front of each class sections's title.


Unfortunately, I was not be able to find the examination dates for the modules. In addition, there is a caveat: I cannot guarantee that the information there stated has been finalised. Thus, even with NUS ISIS, I would not advise you to start planning your timetable too early, as chances are that you may have to do it again.


5) Official Website for GEM/GEK modules


List of GEM/GEK modules that are offered in the coming/current semester: (http://ivle7.nus.edu.sg/Lms/NUS/gem/gem_modules.aspx)


Important information about GEM/GEK modules:

(http://www.nus.edu.sg/gem/about_important_information.htm)

6) Department Website


Sometimes, you do not need to go to such length in order to know the timetable before the CORS website is up. For example, NUS Physics department usually posts the timetable for the physics modules being offered in the coming academic semester 2-3 weeks earlier than CORS. For the benefit of those courageous souls out there who intend to take physics modules, here's the link:http://www.physics.nus.edu.sg/student/timetable.html. For the rest, go search through your department's website (only if you have too much time to spare) and you may be have a pleasant surprise.


List of modules offered by Faculty of Arts and Social Science available for the current/coming semester (useful for module preference exercise): http://ap3.fas.nus.edu.sg/appl/web9/mod_offered/sem2/ALL.htm


Information for modules offered by NUS Business School for the current/coming semester: http://bba.nus.edu/online.html


7) Integrated Virtual Learning Environment, IVLE (https://ivle.nus.edu.sg/)


Update: We can now view IVLE module information from the "Module Detailed Information" from NUS CORS website! (see picture below)




Other than the brief module information provided on NUS Bulletin or CORS, you might be able to find (provided if you are lucky) some relevant and detailed description of the modules you are considering. Log into IVLE and then click on the Search button located on the top right-hand corner. Then, search for the module which you want to know more about. However, it is highly likely that you would the phrase: No data found! But if you are lucky, you might be able to find something useful. Let us consider the following examples:

i) PL1101E [Introduction to Psychology]: The efficient coordinators for this module has already updated the module information! Only if all coordinators are as efficient as them.


ii) MA1506 [Mathematics II]: This is a core module for most Engineering majors and they usually have to take it during their Year 1 Semester 2. If you search for MA1506, you most probably see links which brings you to module information of MA1506, provided by the respective lecturers, for the recent few semesters. If you are intending to take MA1506 in Semester 2, then most probably only the result dated AY11/12 Semester 2 will be useful and relevant to you.


iii) MA1421 [Basic Applied Mathematics for Sciences]: Nothing's there yet!


8) Module Review (http://module-review.com/?taxonomy=module_category&term=nus)


This is an awesome website created by our fellow NUS students, so we should show some support! Module Review is, in their own words, a "community-powered website where students can review and read about modules offered academic institutions", and "by reading off the first-hand experiences from past students, one can make a better informed decision when choosing his or her module." For those modules with non-zero number of comments, you can get to know more about the Content (what is being covered in the that module), Assessment and Workload (weight of CA and finals; open-book or closed-book test/exam; number of assignments/quizzes per week), and the reviewer's Personal Experience. Here you can find a more accurate (as compared to the set of 5-numbers provided by NUS) depiction of the amount of slogging you need to endure if you decide to take up that particular module. Sometimes, you will also be able to find out how "great" our NUS lecturers from the comments under Teaching Staff


Despite being a useful website for NUS students, Module Review still has some room for improvement. Even after some many years, most of the higher-level modules does not even have a single comment. I am quite sure that the administrators of the website are fully aware of this problem and they are more than eager to solve this problem. Until then, anyone can take advantage of this loophole. (more details will be provided on my upcoming post on bidding strategies). Anyway, the second drawback is the applicability of the comments. Different students have just have different definitions for a 'tough' module. For example, I personally think that a quantitative GEM/GEK module, say GEM2900 [Understand'g Uncertainty & Stats Think'g], is much easier than a qualitative GEM/GEK module. However, someone from Faculty of Arts and Social Science may inveigh against my view. Hence, one should not take the comments in the Personal Experience  section too seriously, unless you personally know the reviewer.


Recently, they have allowed users to connect with your Facebook accounts. You can now know what your friends have taken or are taking? Just simply add your modules to your profile page.


9) NUSMods (http://nusmods.com/)


Even though this website was launched recently and it's still in the beta version, it already has many cool features which deserves our attention. Firstly, I am impressed by the number of filters that are available for us to play with. You can even choose to view modules based on the lecture/tutorial timing - useful for those who wish to have a 2/3/4-day week. You can even view modules based on the Prerequisites. Sweet! Timetable building is the main feature of this website. Furthermore, the option to export the timetable created using the site is now available. The module database for this website is more updated than the unofficial timetable builder (see point 11). I managed to find QT5101, a new module, on this website, but it's missing from the Unofficial Timetable builder. Having a IVLE link for each module is another commendable feature of this site (see point 6 for the possible benefit of this).


10) Examination Papers Database 


Just by looking at questions of the final exams, you can roughly guess the content of the module and decide if it's a interesting module to take. For GEM/GEK modules (and for those modules which you have prior content knowledge), you can judge the difficulty of the module. As NUS employs the bell-curve grading system, a difficult module does not necessarily imply that you will have a lower expected grade. Here's the link to the step-by-step guide, provided by NUS Library staff, that shows you how to access NUS examination papershttp://libfaq.nus.edu.sg/a.php?qid=10367. For unknown reasons, some departments, such as Life Science, do not upload their exam questions. How about examinations solutions? Freshmen, you all can either get it from the lecturer, buy it from your department's student society or get it free on-line (such as my blog).


11) Unofficial NUS CORS Bidding Statistics (http://www.corsbiddingstats.com/)


Tired of opening so many windows just to find out what's the lowest successful bid points or the quota for the past few semesters? At least I am! Fortunately, someone has compiled the bidding statistics. Just key in the module code and you will have a nice table showing most of the information you can find on CORS.


12) Corspedia (http://www.corspedia.com/)
Heard that it is similar to Unofficial NUS COTS Bidding Statistics.

13) Forum and Blogs


Module-Review.com is not the only place you can get modules reviews from those who have taken the module. Module reviews are all over the net; you just need to dig them out using Google. This also goes to show that Module-Review.com still has a long way to go in attracting (or a better word might be, 'incentivizing') bloggers to write their module feedbacks on their site. Anyway, here are some of the few sites I have found online:


NUS Economics Society Student Feedback Forum:  http://ensnus.forumsmotions.com/c3-economics-modules-review


xianyou_: http://xianyou.wordpress.com/tag/review/


Angad@NUS: http://angad-sing.blogspot.sg/2009/12/module-review.html


this is alan's blog: http://alanzzzz.wordpress.com/category/nus/nus-module-reviews/


VICISSITUDE OF LIFE: http://siahshufen.blogspot.sg/2010/01/nus-module-reviews-year-1-sem1.html


Chemical Engineering Student's Society: http://nuschess.org/resources/module-review/


complicated: http://cliff-vs-cliffy.livejournal.com/tag/nus


Department of Crappy Engineering: http://www.chillycraps.com/2009/07/craps-module-recommendation.html


14) NUS Teaching Facilities (http://nusfacilities.cit.nus.edu.sg/)

Useful for freshmen who want to locate the lecture halls in NUS.

15) Official Timetable Builder (https://webrb.nus.edu.sg/ctt/builder.aspx)


16) Unofficial Timetable Builder (http://cors.i-cro.net/)


17) Hippo Campus (http://www.hippocampus.sg/modules/nus)


Similar to Module-Review.com but it has much fewer reviews.


For more tips about modules, you may want to check out this blog: http://alanzblog.blogspot.sg/2011/06/nus-tips-and-more.html

Risk Taking - League Table Quiz

A mini challenge for soccer punters

(Disclaimer: I am not promoting gambling! But if you really choose to gamble, do it responsibly!)

I chanced upon this question while I was browsing through books on psychometric test. It was mentioned in the book that this is the hardest question that can possibly appear in the numerical reasoning test. However, I strongly believe that any punters that place bets for soccer games should be able to solve this question.

Suppose there are 6 soccer teams: Team Alpha, Team Beta, Team Delta, Team Gamma, Team Omega and Team Sigma. As usual, a team will receive 3 points if it wins a match but will not receive any point if it loses that match. However, if the game ends in draw, both teams will each receive 1 point for that game. Let us also assume that each team will play with the remaining 5 teams once for the whole season. The following is the league table for that 6 soccer teams:

                                      No of matches played          Total Points
Team Alpha                                   4                                   10
Team Beta                                     4                                    9
Team Delta                                    4                                    6
Team Gamma                                4                                    6
Team Omega                                 4                                    1
Team Sigma                                   4                                    0

Q1) So far, how many matches have taken place?

Q2) Which of the above-mentioned team(s) can still be the champion for this season?

Q3) Which of the above-mentioned team(s) can still finish last for this season?





Risk Taking - European Odds

In this article, I will teach you how to interpret a set of European odds.

(Disclaimer: I am not promoting gambling! But if you really choose to gamble, do it responsibly!)

For learning purpose, I shall use a coin-flipping game. There are only one bookmaker and one punter in this example. The coin used is believed to be fair and hence the chance of showing a head is the same as the chance of showing a tail. Lastly, we also assume that the bookmaker is not out to make money or lose money after many rounds of coin-flipping game.

The most rational set of odds set by the bookmaker will be 2 for Head and 2 for Tail. It means that if punter bet Head and the coin indeed shows Head, the punter will win $1 for every $1 the punter bets. However, if the coin shows Tail, the punter will lose every dollar that the punter bets. Why is the odd set at 2? It is because the probability of showing Head for a fair coin is ½. Over a long run, the bookmaker has 50% chance of losing the bet and 50% chance of winning the bet. If the bookmaker loses the bet, the bookmaker will lose $1 for each $1 bet placed by the punter. If the bookmaker wins the bet, the bookmaker will win $1 for each $1 bet placed by the punter. Over the long run, the expected gain by the bookmaker = ½(-$1)+1/2(+$1) = $0 for every dollar betted. This is what the bookmaker wants – not making or losing money after many games.

In fact, if the odds for Head = 1/x and the odds for Tail = 1/y, it means that bookmaker BELIEVES that the chances of the coin getting Head is x and the chance for Tail is y.

So, in what situation should a rational person enter the game and place the bet?

A smart punter will enter a game if the punter does not agree with the probabilities that the bookmakers believe. If punter somehow manage to get the coin to show Tail all the time (without alerting the bookmaker), it means that the punter believes that the probability of Tail =1. As the foolish bookmaker still thinks that the coin is fair, he/she will still believe that probability of Tail =1/2 (despite using an unfair coin). The smart punter will definitely enter the game and bet on Tail. Over the long run, the expected return of the punter is 1(+$1)+0(-$1) = $1 for every dollar betted. The smart punter is better off by betting. However, the smart punter will stay out from betting Head as probability of Head perceived by bookmarker > probability of Head perceived by the smart punter. The punter will be worse off betting Head as the expected return will be 0(+$1)+1(-$1) = -$1 per dollar betted.

In the next article, I will discuss about bookmaker’s rule and the non-existence of arbitrage in a single betting game if the bookmaker is rational.

Risk Taking - Odds

In this article, I seek to provide an intuitive understanding to the idea of odds.

(Disclaimer: I am not promoting gambling! But if you really choose to gamble, do it responsibly!)

I will be using the decimal odds system in this article. This is the odds system used by Singapore Pools (the only legal bookmaker in Singapore). Decimal odds, also known as European odds, express the amount of money which will be returned to the punter on a 1 unit stake. For example, if Barcelona is favoured to win at 1.50, then a $100 bet will give you back $150 in total. <http://www.online-betting.me.uk/articles/how-to-read-betting-odds.html> If Barcelona really wins the match, the punter will get back your $100 capital and enjoy a winning of $50. However, if Barcelona loses the match, the punter will lose the $100 capital.

1) How does the bookmaker come out with odds?
I am not sure. Most probably, the bookmaker uses some form of complicated statistical model.

2) What information can punter obtain from the odds provided by the bookmaker?
We can know about bookmaker’s view for that game. If the odds are lower as compared to other options (such North Korea winning that match), it means that the bookmaker thinks that Barcelona has a high chance of winning the match. However if Barcelona's odds are higher as compared to other options, it means that the bookmaker thinks that Barcelona has a lower chance of winning the match.

3) Should you place a bet for an option with higher or lower odds?
It is really up to you. For an option with higher odds, the chance of occurring is lower but the reward is higher. For an option with lower odds, the chance of occurring is higher but the reward is higher. It is risk-reward issue.

In the next article, I shall be using some simple probability ideas to discuss more interesting issues such as, when should you (a rational person) place bet for a game?